68.4%
Winner accuracy across 19 settled fights. We picked the winning fighter in roughly 68 out of every 100 bouts.
How this number is calculated: it is the winner-market hit rate across every settled bout in the selected period, computed live from our prediction database on each page load. Losses are included, nothing is curated or removed, and every settled fight is listed below — tap any event for the full card to see each pick, our prediction, and the actual result.
💡 Is 68.4% actually good?
Short answer: yes — and the fact we publish it at all, win or lose, is the point.
If you just guessed at random between the two fighters, you'd land 50% of the time. We land 68% — comfortably ahead of chance, across every fight we cover, with nothing cherry-picked or quietly dropped. Each pick is a reasoned, per-fight call, not one safe guess repeated.
And the number is real: it updates live from the prediction database on every page load, losses included. Most prediction sites either hide their accuracy or quote figures no honest model could hit — we show ours and stand behind it.
About this sample: Our UFC coverage is new — this is 19 settled bouts across our first events. Treat it as an early read, not a long-run rate. We publish it from fight one rather than waiting, and it'll firm up quickly as more cards settle.
🥊 How Our Fight Calls Score winner is the headline · calling the finish is the hard part
We grade every settled bout three ways: did we pick the right fighter, did we call how the fight would end, and did we land both at once.
🥊 Every Settled Fight 19 bouts across 2 events · tap an event for the full card
🎯 Does Our Confidence Mean Anything? do high-confidence picks land more often?
Every prediction gets a confidence label: High, Medium, or Low. The chart below shows the winner hit rate for each. If High beats Medium beats Low, our confidence is properly calibrated — meaning we know when we know. (Early days for UFC — the per-tier counts are still small.)
A note on honesty. The numbers above are computed live from our prediction database every time you visit this page. We don't curate, hide bad runs, or quietly drop losing predictions. Every match prediction we've ever logged sits in the dataset, settled or not.
No prediction is a guarantee. Past performance doesn't predict future results — MMA is genuinely unpredictable, that's why it's fun to follow. Predictions are for information and entertainment only. If you bet, never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. Gambling can be addictive. BeGambleAware.org.