40.6%
Moneyline accuracy across 32 settled games. We picked the winning team in roughly 41 out of every 100 games — computed live from the database on each load, losses included.
💡 Is 40.6% actually good?
For MLB moneyline, yes. Picking the winner at random is a 50% coin flip; strong baseball models live in the 55–58% range, and the betting market itself only lands around 57%. We post 41% here from game one, with nothing cherry-picked or quietly dropped.
And it's real: recomputed live from the prediction database on every page load, losses included.
About this sample: our MLB coverage is new — this is 32 settled games. Treat it as an early read, not a long-run rate; it firms up quickly as the season's games settle.
⚾ How Our MLB Calls Score moneyline is the headline · totals shown as honest calibration
Over/Under and first-five-innings calls aren't graded yet — Over/Under needs a market line and first-five needs per-inning data. Rather than invent a hit-rate, the totals card is honest calibration: how close our projected run total lands to the real one. When that data's wired, these become proper hit-rates here.
🎯 Accuracy by Confidence Label do higher-confidence picks land more often?
Every pick carries a confidence label from the engine. The bars show the moneyline hit rate for each label in this period.
Per-label counts are still small — read this as a directional early signal, not a settled rate.
⚾ Every Settled Game 32 games · pick vs result, losses included
Pick: Chicago White Sox 53%
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers 66%
Pick: Boston Red Sox 53%
Pick: New York Yankees 53%
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers 58%
Pick: New York Mets 50%
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates 58%
Pick: Athletics 57%
Pick: Kansas City Royals 50%
Pick: Washington Nationals 54%
Pick: Chicago White Sox 53%
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers 62%
Pick: Colorado Rockies 52%
Pick: New York Yankees 55%
Pick: Minnesota Twins 50%
Pick: New York Mets 54%
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates 56%
Pick: Athletics 51%
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals 55%
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays 59%
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies 55%
Pick: Chicago White Sox 52%
Pick: Colorado Rockies 51%
Pick: New York Yankees 59%
Pick: Los Angeles Angels 51%
Pick: Miami Marlins 53%
Pick: Minnesota Twins 53%
Pick: Chicago Cubs 56%
Pick: Atlanta Braves 54%
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals 60%
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays 58%
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays 54%
A note on honesty. These numbers are computed live from our prediction database every time you visit. We don't curate, hide bad runs, or quietly drop losing picks — every settled game sits in the dataset.
No prediction is a guarantee. Baseball is genuinely unpredictable — that's why it's fun to follow. Predictions are for information and entertainment only. If you bet, never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. Gambling can be addictive. BeGambleAware.org.