vs
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 11/8 2.40 | 39% | 38% | -1% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.70 | 26% | 28% | +2% |
| Win | 7/4 2.70 | 35% | 34% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Lille chasing top-4 (P4)
- 🌧️ Heavy rain (24.4mm) — slippery pitch, direct play favoured
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Ligue 1 history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Monaco home form solid (DWWW), avg 2.15 goals scored; Lille away form strong (WWWLW) but defensively focused, avg 1.53 goals scored
H2H: Lille edge overall (4W vs 2W Monaco in last 8), but low-scoring recent meetings (avg 2.1/game), Monaco won last home meeting 1-0
Stakes: Lille chasing top-4 adds motivation boost; Monaco in mid-table but home pride and rest advantage apply
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Lille hold a slight H2H edge (4 wins to Monaco's 2 in last 8), but recent meetings are low-scoring and tight; Monaco won the last home fixture 1-0, suggesting competitive but narrow results at Stade Louis II.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.