Afghanistan vs Pakistan
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan Win | 4/5 1.82 | 52% | 35% | -17% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.35 | 28% | 38% | +10% |
| Pakistan Win Value | 7/2 4.52 | 20% | 27% | +7% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Afghanistan winless in last 4 (DLLL), averaging just 0.38 goals scored; Pakistan have limited recent data but a balanced 1-1 goals record
H2H: Last 2 meetings both draws (1-1 and 0-0), averaging 1 goal per game — strong draw trend
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive stakes for either side — classic low-motivation, balanced encounter
Betting: Bookmaker implies 38% draw probability consistent with model; low-scoring match expected given Afghanistan's attacking struggles and H2H history
⚔️ Head to Head
Both recent meetings ended in draws (1-1 and 0-0 in October 2025), pointing strongly toward another tight, balanced result with minimal goals.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams are expected to find the net at least once — Pakistan carry enough attacking threat (1 goal avg) to breach Afghanistan's defense, while Afghanistan, playing at home with crowd support, have shown they can score (1-1 in the last H2H) even in difficult form spells.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals are expected to stay under 2.5 — Afghanistan average fewer than 0.4 goals per game in recent matches, the H2H average is just 1 goal per game across the last two meetings, and the friendly context reduces urgency for both attacks to push forward aggressively.