Al-Fayha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Fayha Win | 10/1 11.00 | 8% | 4% | -4% |
| Draw | 6/1 6.80 | 14% | 10% | -4% |
| Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win Value | 1/5 1.20 | 78% | 86% | +8% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Al-Fayha mid-table (P10) — low motivation
- 🏆 Al-Hilal Saudi FC in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Al-Fayha averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.9 conceded; Al-Hilal averaging 2.54 scored and only 0.82 conceded
H2H: Al-Hilal have won 6 of last 8, including shutouts (0-2, 0-2) and big wins (4-1, 3-0) at this venue
Stakes: Al-Fayha mid-table with nothing to play for; Al-Hilal chasing the title from P2 — massive motivation gap
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Al-Hilal's defensive record (0.82 conceded/game) and Al-Fayha's attacking struggles; Over 2.5 backed by Al-Hilal's dominant xG and H2H avg of 2.4 goals/game skewed heavily toward away goals
⚔️ Head to Head
Al-Hilal have dominated this fixture, winning 6 of 8 meetings with multiple clean sheets at Al-Fayha's ground (0-2 twice). Al-Fayha have struggled to score against them historically.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Al-Hilal's defensive solidity (0.82 goals conceded per game) combined with Al-Fayha's low attacking output (1.41 scored/game) and motivation deficit make it unlikely Al-Fayha find the net. Al-Hilal have kept Al-Fayha scoreless in several recent head-to-head clashes, supporting a clean sheet for the away side.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Total goals of 3 clears the 2.5 line. Al-Hilal's attacking xG of 4.5, their 2.54 goals-per-game season average, and their title-race motivation all point to multiple goals. H2H history also averages 2.4 goals per game, and in games Al-Hilal win comfortably the totals tend to exceed 2.5.