Algeria vs Austria

Algeria and Austria served up a World Cup thriller that nobody saw coming. The match swung end-to-end from start to finish, with both sides trading blows in a six-goal spectacle that finished 3-3. Arnautovic opened the scoring for Austria in the 28th minute, assisted by Alaba, but Algeria hit back before the break when Belghali levelled things up in the 45th. Sabitzer put Austria back in front just after the hour with help from Laimer, only for Mahrez to draw it level again in the 60th. Deep into stoppage time, Mahrez struck again—same partnership with Aouar—to put Algeria ahead, but Kalajdzic had the final word for Austria with an assist from Gregoritsch in the 90+6th minute to make it all square.

Our model predicted a 1-2 Austria win, which gave the draw just a 31% lean—the third most likely outcome in our pre-match assessment. The model had weighted Austria's superior squad depth and their need for points as decisive factors, and while that squad quality did show up at times, the actual pace and openness of the game caught us out. We'd flagged both-teams-to-score and over 2.5 goals as plausible, and the match absolutely delivered on that front—six goals between them is well above the 3-goal threshold we'd leaned towards. What we missed was quite how much momentum would swing throughout ninety minutes, and how clinical both sides would be in front of goal when chances came. Fair play to the attacking intent from both camps, even if it meant our more cautious scoreline prediction ended up wide of the mark.