Anderlecht vs St. Truiden
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht Win | 11/10 2.15 | 43% | 35% | -8% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.65 | 26% | 21% | -5% |
| St. Truiden Win Value | 2/1 3.00 | 31% | 44% | +13% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 💀 Anderlecht already relegated (P4) — nothing to play for
- 🎯 St. Truiden chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Anderlecht in dire shape (DLDLLLWWLL, 1 win in last 5 home games); St. Truiden steady away (LWDLL) with strong recent overall results
H2H: Anderlecht historically dominant (6W in 8), but St. Truiden won the most recent meeting 2-0 and trend is shifting toward away dominance
Stakes: Anderlecht relegated — minimal fight; St. Truiden pressing for top-2 — high intensity expected
Betting: BTTS likely given both teams averaging goals and H2H averaging 2.8/game; Over 2.5 supported by xG totals (3.92 combined) and motivated away side
⚔️ Head to Head
Anderlecht historically dominant in H2H (6 wins from 8), but the April 2026 reverse fixture saw St. Truiden win 2-0, suggesting momentum has shifted toward the away side as Anderlecht decline.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams are expected to score — Anderlecht have averaged 1.54 goals per game even in poor form and St. Truiden's attacking output (4-1, 2-1 in recent wins) shows they can be breached, while a motivated St. Truiden side should have enough quality to find the net against a relegated, low-morale Anderlecht defence conceding 2.47 per game.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Total of 3 goals clears the 2.5 threshold — supported by the combined xG of 3.92, H2H average of 2.8 goals per game, St. Truiden's attacking intent in a must-win situation, and Anderlecht's leaky defence at home making a multi-goal game highly plausible.