Azerbaijan vs San Marino
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan Win | 1/6 1.17 | 80% | 41% | -39% |
| Draw Value | 11/2 6.50 | 14% | 35% | +21% |
| San Marino Win Value | 14/1 15.00 | 6% | 24% | +18% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 9 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Azerbaijan (80% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Azerbaijan winless recently but face an even weaker San Marino side; San Marino lost both recent matches
H2H: Azerbaijan won both meetings including 5-1 in 2017 — clear dominance over San Marino
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive stakes, but reputational difference between nations is significant
Betting: Bookmakers heavily back Azerbaijan at 86% implied — BTTS unlikely given San Marino's 0.36 avg goals scored away; Under 2.5 borderline given low xG but H2H history nudges total upward slightly
⚔️ Head to Head
Azerbaijan have won both previous meetings, including a dominant 5-1 result — they have consistently outclassed San Marino across different competitions and eras.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 1-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals of 2 falls under the 2.5 threshold. Despite H2H history suggesting goals, both teams' low current scoring averages (Azerbaijan 0.2, San Marino 0.36) and the friendly context with low motivation point to a tight, controlled game staying under 2.5 goals.