Bayern München vs 1. FC Heidenheim

Bayern München and 1. FC Heidenheim served up one of this season's great Bundesliga upsets, with the visitors from the relegation zone somehow battling back from two goals down to force a 3-3 draw at the Allianz Arena. Bashir Zivzivadze's brace, opened in the 22nd minute with support from Marvin Busch, handed Heidenheim an early foothold, and when Esad Dinkci made it 2-0 before halftime, the title-chasing hosts faced an unexpected mountain to climb. Leon Goretzka's quick-fire response in the 44th and 57th minutes—the second assisted by Michael Olise—dragged Bayern level, but Zivzivadze's second goal, assisted by Arjen Ibrahimovic in the 76th minute, gave Heidenheim the lead once more. Maximiliano Olise's finish with Andy Davies setting him up in injury time salvaged a draw for Bayern, a result that feels more damaging to their title ambitions than to their visitors' survival hopes.

Our model's prediction of a 3-1 Bayern victory missed the mark significantly. The 91% win probability assigned to the hosts and the 3% draw probability failed to account for Heidenheim's willingness to press forward despite their away form, which had read LDLLL coming into the fixture. We correctly flagged the fixture's high-scoring tendency—our historical average of 5.7 goals per meeting held firm—and the over 2.5 projection proved sound. However, the prediction underestimated Heidenheim's capacity to stay in the contest even when trailing, a resilience that emerged in their second-half comeback. Bayern's defensive frailty, hinted at by Heidenheim's recent scoring record, proved more pronounced than expected, while the visitors' attacking ambition overrode the statistical disadvantage of their league position and road record.