Bosnia & Herzegovina vs FYR Macedonia
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina Win | 4/5 1.77 | 53% | 35% | -18% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 38% | +11% |
| FYR Macedonia Win Value | 7/2 4.60 | 20% | 27% | +7% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Bosnia & Herzegovina (228d) vs FYR Macedonia (196d) — Bosnia & Herzegovina significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bosnia W-L but high-scoring (4-1, 1-2 avg 4.9 scored); Macedonia D-L low-scoring (0-0, 1-2 avg 0.9 scored)
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Friendly fixture, both sides fresh after long breaks; Bosnia marginally fresher at 228 days vs 196 days
Betting: BTTS unlikely — Macedonia's attack has averaged under 1 goal and failed to score in their last match; Bosnia's defense concedes but Macedonia lack threat to breach it. Under 2.5 likely — equal ELO, low xG model (0.79 vs 0.75), and Macedonia's inability to create goals caps total output.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Macedonia's attacking record is very poor (avg 0.9 goals scored, blank in last game), and their away record shows losses without scoring. Bosnia's defense should be capable of keeping a clean sheet against this level of attacking threat, making BTTS unlikely.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals of 2 in the projected 2-0 scoreline falls below the 2.5-goal line. The engine projects a controlled, lower-scoring contest.