Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar

Bosnia & Herzegovina put in a commanding World Cup display to beat Qatar 3-1 and keep their tournament hopes alive. The match turned decisively in the first half when Alajbegovic opened the scoring in the 29th minute, assisted by Basic, before an own goal from Abunada just five minutes later handed Bosnia a 2-0 cushion. Qatar pulled one back through Al Haydos on 42 minutes — Edmilson Junior with the assist — but Bosnia sealed it late when Mahmic added a third in the 80th minute, setting up by Hadzikadunic. It was a convincing performance that leaves Qatar's World Cup campaign in serious trouble.

Our model came into this one leaning toward Bosnia at a 61% win probability, with a predicted 2-1 scoreline. We got the result direction spot on, but underestimated Bosnia's attacking threat — they went one better than forecast. Before kickoff, the form book suggested Bosnia despite their recent home struggles, chiefly because Qatar had won nothing on the road in their last handful of games and were missing key midfield cover through suspension. The match broadly bore that out: Bosnia dominated the first half, and Qatar's defensive vulnerabilities showed. Where we missed was in the margin — this wasn't a one-goal nail-biter like we'd tipped, but a more comfortable three-goal win that better reflected the gap between the sides when it mattered.