Bulgaria vs Montenegro
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria Win | 15/8 2.82 | 33% | 28% | -5% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.17 | 29% | 45% | +16% |
| Montenegro Win | 6/4 2.45 | 38% | 27% | -11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bulgaria winless in last 2 (L, D), Montenegro unbeaten (W, D) but this is a low-stakes friendly
H2H: 2 draws, 2 Montenegro wins in last 4 — fixture is draw-prone, low-scoring (1.5 avg goals/game)
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive relevance for either side — motivation is limited, favouring a cautious, low-scoring draw
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Montenegro have the slight edge (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 Bulgaria wins) but all four meetings produced 3 or fewer goals, and two ended level — this fixture consistently trends toward tight, low-scoring results.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.