Bulgaria vs Montenegro
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria Win | 15/8 2.82 | 33% | 28% | -5% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.17 | 29% | 45% | +16% |
| Montenegro Win | 6/4 2.45 | 38% | 27% | -11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bulgaria winless in last 2 (L, D), Montenegro unbeaten (W, D) but this is a low-stakes friendly
H2H: 2 draws, 2 Montenegro wins in last 4 — fixture is draw-prone, low-scoring (1.5 avg goals/game)
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive relevance for either side — motivation is limited, favouring a cautious, low-scoring draw
Betting: BTTS supported by both teams finding the net in recent games; Under 2.5 supported by H2H average of 1.5 goals and Poisson xG of under 1.6 combined
⚔️ Head to Head
Montenegro have the slight edge (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 Bulgaria wins) but all four meetings produced 3 or fewer goals, and two ended level — this fixture consistently trends toward tight, low-scoring results.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score recently — Bulgaria netted twice in their last game (2-2) and Montenegro scored twice in each of their last two matches. In a balanced friendly both sides are likely to create and convert at least one chance.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The H2H average of just 1.5 goals per game and the Poisson model's combined xG of only 1.54 both point firmly toward under 2.5 goals. With no competitive stakes and evenly matched defences, a tight 1-1 finish keeping the total at 2 goals is the most probable outcome.