Canada vs Qatar

Canada delivered a dominant performance to overwhelm Qatar 6–0 in a World Cup group-stage match that spiralled decisively in the designated home side's favour after an early red card shifted the contest entirely. Larin opened the scoring in the 16th minute, and David doubled the lead by the 29th. Qatar's task became impossible when Al Amin was sent off in the 33rd minute, and the numerical disadvantage proved insurmountable. David added a third before halftime, then Saliba made it 4–0 in the 64th minute. An own goal from Al Mannai in the 75th extended Canada's margin, before David completed his hat-trick with an assist from Saliba in the 90th minute.

Our model predicted a 2–0 Canada victory with a 75 per cent win probability for the designated home side. The outcome direction was correct—Canada did win—but the scale of the scoreline far exceeded the forecast. The pre-match expectation rested on Canada's home form (averaging 1.01 goals scored per game) outpacing Qatar's away vulnerability, while both teams' early World Cup standing suggested cautious, point-hungry football rather than a rout. The red cards that unfolded during the match—two sendings-off for Qatar—were not factors the model could anticipate, and their occurrence transformed what might have been a competitive fixture into a one-sided exhibition.

Had Qatar remained at full strength, the contest would likely have tracked closer to the 2–0 lean the model favoured. Instead, the numerical advantage Canada gained after the 33rd minute created space and psychological collapse that the designated away side could not recover from, exposing how dramatically match circumstances can diverge from pre-match probability landscapes.