Canada vs Uzbekistan
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada Win | 8/13 1.62 | 58% | 32% | -26% |
| Draw Value | 11/4 3.78 | 25% | 45% | +20% |
| Uzbekistan Win Value | 4/1 5.25 | 17% | 23% | +6% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 12 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Canada (58% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Canada averaging 1.35 goals scored, only 0.26 conceded — very strong defensive base. Uzbekistan averaging 1.6 scored but 0.5 conceded away context is limited.
H2H: Limited data — no meaningful head-to-head history to draw on.
Stakes: International friendly with no tournament stakes — low motivation overall, but Canada are gearing up for 2026 World Cup on home soil, providing marginal extra drive.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient head-to-head history between Canada and Uzbekistan to establish a reliable trend.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.