Cape Verde Islands vs Bermuda
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Verde Islands Win | 1/25 1.06 | 89% | 39% | -50% |
| Draw Value | 10/1 11.38 | 8% | 39% | +31% |
| Bermuda Win Value | 25/1 29.00 | 3% | 22% | +19% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 10 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Cape Verde Islands (89% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Cape Verde low-scoring but defensively resilient at home (DLW, recent scores 1-1, 0-0, 1-1); Bermuda lost both recent games 0-2 and 3-5 with 6.5 avg conceded
H2H: Limited data
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive stakes — motivation moderate for both sides, but Cape Verde playing at home provides edge
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Bermuda's attacking struggles away and Cape Verde's defensive record; Under 2.5 supported by Cape Verde's low-scoring home games and xG totals below 1.6 combined
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Bermuda have conceded heavily but struggled to score consistently in their two recent losses, and facing a disciplined Cape Verde defensive unit at home makes it unlikely they find the net. Cape Verde's defensive solidity (0.48 goals conceded average) further supports Bermuda being shut out.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Combined xG of just 1.54 and Cape Verde's consistently low-scoring home results (three of their last five home-relevant scores were 0-0 or 1-0 range) point firmly toward under 2.5 goals. A 1-0 result is comfortably within the under threshold.