Central African Republic vs Togo
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 5 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central African Republic Win Value | 7/2 4.75 | 20% | 28% | +8% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.25 | 28% | 39% | +11% |
| Togo Win | 4/5 1.80 | 52% | 33% | -19% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: CAR winless in 8 (0W-2D-6L), averaging just 0.18 goals scored; Togo inconsistent (1W-2D-3L) but averaging 1.68 goals scored
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: International friendly with no competitive points at stake — both teams mid-table equivalents with nothing decisive to play for, favouring a low-key draw
Betting: Bookmakers imply 55% away win but draw remains plausible at 39% model probability; low-scoring game expected under 2.5 given CAR's chronic attacking deficiency
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Togo's attacking output (1.68 goals/game avg) gives them a realistic chance of scoring even against CAR's defensive setup, while CAR — despite their poor scoring record — have managed to find the net in recent draws (1-1, 0-0 run) and Togo's defence has been leaky (2.03 conceded/game), creating a pathway for the home side to score at least once.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
With CAR averaging only 0.18 goals scored per game and both sides in a low-stakes friendly, the total goals are expected to stay at or below 2. The model's xG values (0.79 and 0.75) and the defensive nature of CAR's recent results strongly point to under 2.5 goals in this fixture.