Charleroi vs OH Leuven
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi Win Value | 8/11 1.74 | 54% | 60% | +6% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.85 | 24% | 22% | -2% |
| OH Leuven Win | 10/3 4.41 | 22% | 18% | -4% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Charleroi averaging 1.07 goals scored at home with a solid defensive record; OH Leuven averaging 1.46 scored but 1.64 conceded overall with inconsistent away form
H2H: Last 8 meetings average only 1.8 goals per game — a tight, low-scoring fixture historically; Charleroi just won 2-0 in the reverse meeting
Stakes: Business end of season elevates intensity; Charleroi as hosts with statistical edge have more to play for at home
Betting: Bookmakers heavily favour Charleroi (58% home win implied); model top scores are 1-0 and 2-0 suggesting OH Leuven struggle to score here
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings are evenly split but very tight and low-scoring (avg 1.8 goals/game). The last meeting was a 2-0 Charleroi win away, and the most recent home fixture ended 0-2 to OH Leuven — alternating results with frequent clean sheets for the winning side.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
OH Leuven's away defensive record is poor but their attacking output on the road has also been limited (LDLDW away, scoring in only 1 of last 4 away games). Charleroi's home defensive average of 0.86 conceded per game combined with B. Put's high-card refereeing style — which disrupts attacking flow — makes it likely OH Leuven are shut out. BTTS is not expected.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The H2H fixture is historically low-scoring (1.8 goals/game average), and Charleroi's home matches have been tight. With a high-card referee disrupting game flow and OH Leuven's attack likely to be nullified by Charleroi's organized defence, the total goals count is expected to stay under 2.5.