Charlton vs Derby
📖 The Preview
Derby edging this one out on the road makes sense when you look at the head-to-head, where Charlton have actually lost more of these meetings than they've won. Charlton are carrying several injury absences right now too, including Kelman and Ramsay, which doesn't help. The models are tight on this one, barely splitting the two sides, but Derby just shade it. Expect a low-key, scrappy affair where neither side goes overboard, and one Derby goal on the break proves enough to nick all three points.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Win | 13/8 2.67 | 35% | 36% | +1% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.15 | 30% | 27% | -3% |
| Derby Win | 13/8 2.63 | 35% | 37% | +2% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Charlton WLWLWDW at home, Derby LDLWLLW away with just 29% win rate
H2H: Last 8 meetings split 4-3-1 in Derby's favour, avg 2.3 goals/game, most recent result was a 1-1 draw
Stakes: Both sides early-season, mid-table, no pressure — classic draw conditions
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings are evenly contested with Derby edging wins 4-3, but the most recent encounter ended 1-1 and low-scoring draws are a recurring theme; avg 2.3 goals/game points to modest but bilateral scoring.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.