Chelsea vs Manchester City

Sat 16 May 2026

Final Score

0 – 1

Our prediction got the result right

✓ Result

✗ Exact score

✗ BTTS

✗ Over 2.5

CleverScores Prediction

1 – 3

Away Win Medium · 69%

Chelsea

14%

Draw

16%

Manchester City

70%

💰 Finding the Value

Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.

Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Edge
Chelsea Win	7/2 4.70	20%	14%	-6%
Draw	3/1 4.00	24%	16%	-8%
Manchester City Win Value	4/6 1.70	56%	70%	+14%

1 value market identified in this fixture.

Edge is the gap between our model probability and the bookmaker consensus. A +5% or larger edge means we think this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market does. Odds shown are the median across all bookies in both fractional (UK) and decimal formats — always verify current prices with your bookmaker. Predictions are for information only and are not financial advice.

View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff

⚡ Stakes & Context

🏆 FA Cup — cup tie motivation

🔍 Key Stats

Form: Chelsea in poor shape (20% win rate, averaging 1.09 goals scored); City in excellent form (80% win rate, 2.8 goals scored per game)
H2H: City dominant — 5 wins in last 8, away-dominant pattern, average 3.5 goals/game
Stakes: FA Cup knockout — maximum motivation for both sides, no dead-rubber discount applied
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-3.

⚔️ Head to Head

Manchester City have won 5 of the last 8 meetings with 0 Chelsea wins, consistently dominant in this fixture with an average of 3.5 goals per game. City won 0-3 at Chelsea as recently as April 2026, confirming their away dominance in this tie.

🎲 Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline has both teams finding the net.

Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.

CleverScore confidence: 69/99 · Medium

Predictions are AI-generated from form data, head-to-head history, and contextual signals. Football is unpredictable — never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org