Colombia vs Ghana
Likely line-up
📖 The Preview
Colombia are massive favourites here and honestly it's not hard to see why. The numbers have them at 76% to win, and with a 3-0 prediction and the over 2.5 goals market landing, this looks like a comfortable evening for them. Ghana will have their moments, as any World Cup side will, but the BTTS prediction being no tells you everything about the defensive gap between these two. Colombia should be well clear by the end.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia Win Value | 8/13 1.64 | 58% | 76% | +18% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 15% | -11% |
| Ghana Win | 5/1 6.20 | 16% | 9% | -7% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Colombia averaging 2.01 goals scored and 0.75 conceded — dominant home form. Ghana averaging only 0.92 goals scored, 1.37 conceded, with a miserable away record of LDDLLL.
H2H: Limited data available but ELO gap of 429 strongly favours Colombia at every level.
Stakes: World Cup knockout context means Colombia are highly motivated; Ghana face an enormous task to progress.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient head-to-head history to draw meaningful trends, but the ELO gap of 429 and current form disparity make Colombia overwhelming favourites regardless of historical matchups.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.