Colombia vs Jordan
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia Win Value | 1/6 1.18 | 80% | 90% | +10% |
| Draw | 11/2 6.75 | 14% | 7% | -7% |
| Jordan Win | 14/1 14.63 | 6% | 3% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Colombia WWDW at home, avg 1.44 scored / 0.18 conceded overall — elite defensive form. Jordan 50% win rate, poor away record (WWWLLL recent away), conceding ~1 goal/game.
H2H: Limited data — no meaningful head-to-head history to override model signals.
Stakes: Friendly match reduces some intensity, but Colombia will want to impress ahead of 2026 World Cup preparation; Jordan have little to fight for.
Betting: BTTS unlikely — Colombia's defensive solidity (only 0.18 goals conceded on average) and Jordan's poor away attacking output make a Jordan goal highly improbable. Over 2.5 strongly favoured given Colombia's xG of 4.5 and dominant home form producing 3+ goals regularly.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no meaningful recent H2H history available to significantly adjust the model output.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 4-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Over 2.5 goals is strongly expected. Colombia's xG of 4.5 reflects their attacking dominance, and their recent scorelines of 3-0 and 4-0 at home confirm they routinely exceed this threshold. A 4-0 result comfortably clears the over 2.5 line.