Congo DR vs Denmark
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congo DR Win Value | 5/1 6.05 | 15% | 27% | +12% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 4.00 | 24% | 38% | +14% |
| Denmark Win | 8/15 1.54 | 61% | 35% | -26% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 13 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Denmark (61% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Congo DR strong at home (4W 1L last 5); Denmark only 2 recent games both wins but small sample. H2H: Limited data. Stakes: International friendly — low motivation for both sides, reduces ambition and risk-taking. Betting: BTTS likely given both teams have capable attackers and this is a low-pressure friendly; Under 2.5 favoured given Congo DR's defensive solidity (0.59 conceded avg) and Denmark's low xG away.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to draw meaningful trend conclusions.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams are expected to find the net as Congo DR are dangerous at home with quality attackers and Denmark's forwards have scored in both recent outings; the friendly context allows both sides to attack without heavy defensive pressure, making a mutual goal likely.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Despite both teams scoring, the low xG values (0.79 and 0.75) and Congo DR's strong defensive record (0.59 goals conceded per game) point firmly toward a tight game under 2.5 total goals — a 1-1 scoreline sits comfortably within that ceiling.