Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Arsenal made light work of a second-half opportunity to secure a 2-1 victory at Selhurst Park, despite the considerable distractions of a title already wrapped up and rotation on the agenda. Gabriel Jesus opened the scoring in the 42nd minute with a well-taken finish from Martinelli's assist, and Arsenal doubled their lead just after the restart when Madueke converted a Havertz chance in the 48th. Crystal Palace pulled one back late through Mateta's 89th-minute finish from Pino's assist, but it proved too little too late. The away side's clinical finishing in the first half and early second period proved decisive.

Our pre-match prediction of a 1-1 draw missed the mark on both the scoreline and the result direction. The underlying logic — that Arsenal's rotation and Palace's home comfort would produce a low-stakes stalemate — didn't account for how effectively Arsenal's squad depth translated to goals even without first-choice personnel, or for Palace's inability to impose themselves defensively. While Arsenal's recent H2H dominance and high-scoring pattern had suggested a wider margin of victory, our model underestimated their ruthlessness even in a dead-rubber fixture. The prediction leaned too heavily on end-of-season lethargy as a leveling factor and underweighted the gap in conversion efficiency between the sides.