Crystal Palace vs Everton

Crystal Palace and Everton played out a 2-2 draw at Selhurst Park, with both sides trading goals across a match that never quite settled into a rhythm. Tarkowski's sixth-minute opener for Everton set an early tempo, but Palace equalised through Sarr's 34th-minute finish. The pattern repeated after the interval when Beto restored Everton's lead just three minutes into the second half, only for Mateta to level things again in the 77th minute. The final scoreline reflected a game where neither team could establish control, each capable of scoring but neither equipped to defend decisively.

Our model predicted a 1-2 Everton victory with 42% win probability, so we called neither the result direction nor the exact score. The 2-2 draw landed outside our primary scenario, though it's worth noting our draw probability of 37% was the second-most likely outcome in our assessment. What we underestimated was the attacking intensity from both sides. We flagged Everton's defensive vulnerabilities and anticipated Both Teams To Score as likely, but the actual scoreline suggests both defences were more porous than our model accounted for. Palace's home record showed limited goal-scoring prowess, yet they managed two finishes; Everton, despite patchy away form, similarly found the net twice. The H2H average of 2.1 goals per game hinted at relatively tight encounters, but today's tally of four goals across 90 minutes pointed to a more open affair than either side's pre-match statistics implied.