CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag
📖 The Preview
The first leg ended 0-0 in Baku, so Qarabag head to Sofia knowing a single away goal could be enough to go through, and that extra bit of clarity in what they need tends to sharpen a team up. The head-to-head leans their way too, with CSKA yet to beat them across three previous meetings. CSKA have been decent domestically but Qarabag carry just enough quality and composure to nick one here, with neither side looking likely to go mad in front of goal. One-nil on the road, job done.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia Win | 13/8 2.60 | 35% | 30% | -5% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.24 | 29% | 31% | +2% |
| Qarabag Win | 13/8 2.60 | 36% | 39% | +3% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 0-0 (2026-07-23): tie level on aggregate going into second leg.
- 🎯 Final scoreline overridden to AI pick 0-1 (aggregate-tie: AI tactical reasoning trusted over Poisson form blend)
- 🎯 Probabilities recomputed from final scoreline 0-1 (aggregate-tie override): 18/35/47
🔍 Key Stats
Form: CSKA Sofia home record decent (WWW) but fatigued; Qarabag away form strong (WLWWW) and well-rested
H2H: 3 meetings avg 0.7 goals/game — extremely low-scoring; Qarabag won both competitive legs 0-1
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout, aggregate 0-0 after first leg — both teams fully motivated, away goal could be decisive
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Qarabag have won both prior competitive meetings against CSKA Sofia, both by 0-1 scorelines. The fixture averages just 0.7 goals per game — historically very tight and away-dominant.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.