DC United vs Nashville SC
📖 The Preview
Nashville have been flying lately, winning four on the bounce at one point, and their head-to-head record against DC United tells a pretty clear story too, four losses in eight meetings for the hosts. DC United have been patchy at best, grinding out draws rather than winning convincingly, and losing Rowles to injury doesn't help their cause. Nashville should have enough quality to run out 3-1 winners here, with DC nicking one to keep it respectable, but ultimately this looks like Nashville's game to take.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC United Win | 15/8 2.91 | 32% | 31% | -1% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 22% | -6% |
| Nashville SC Win Value | 5/4 2.32 | 40% | 47% | +7% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: DC United inconsistent at home (WDDLW), Nashville SC in excellent run (WWWWW in last 5 overall); Nashville SC away form is mixed (LWLD) but H2H dominance overrides this
H2H: Nashville SC leads 4-2-2 in last 8, avg 3.6 goals/game, Nashville won 5-2 and 4-1 in recent meetings — this is a historically high-scoring fixture favouring Nashville
Stakes: Both teams mid-table in MLS with no major promotion/relegation stakes, but Nashville's form momentum provides intrinsic motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-3.
⚔️ Head to Head
Nashville SC dominant in H2H with 4 wins from last 8, including heavy victories (5-2, 4-1); fixture historically produces goals (3.6/game avg) with DC United struggling to contain Nashville's attack at home and away
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.