Dundee vs Aberdeen
📝 Match Recap
Dundee turned in a composed performance to edge Aberdeen 3-2 in a fixture that delivered more goals than our pre-match model anticipated. D. Wright opened the scoring in the tenth minute with an assist from C. Reilly, but Aberdeen responded quickly through L. Morrison's 23rd-minute finish to level at 1-1. The visitors looked to have seized momentum when T. Olusanya added a second just before halftime, only for J. Westley's 61st-minute goal to swing the match back in Dundee's favour. R. Astley sealed the win with a 90th-minute finish that ultimately decided a game where both sides took their chances when they mattered most.
Our prediction of a 2-1 Dundee victory correctly called the result direction—the home side's superior form and Aberdeen's poor away record proved decisive factors—but missed the final scoreline by one goal. The match aligned with our pre-match analysis in several respects: Aberdeen's recent away struggles (DLLL in four matches) left them vulnerable, while Dundee's attacking threat at home, underpinned by their WWLDWD form, materialised on the day. The fixture's head-to-head history of averaging 3.1 goals per game suggested both sides would find the net, which proved accurate, though our model's conservative xG assessment slightly underestimated the eventual goal tally. That Dundee won despite conceding twice reflects their clinical finishing when opportunities arose, particularly in the second half when control shifted decisively in their favour.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Win Value | 11/8 2.38 | 40% | 55% | +15% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.53 | 27% | 23% | -4% |
| Aberdeen Win | 7/4 2.78 | 33% | 22% | -11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Dundee averaging 1.59 goals scored at home with WWLDWD recent home form; Aberdeen away record is poor — DLLL in last 4 away games
H2H: 8 meetings averaging 3.1 goals/game, Aberdeen historically dominant but Dundee won the last meeting 3-2 in Feb 2026
Stakes: Both sides mid-table with normal motivation — no relegation or European pressure distorting the result
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Aberdeen have won 5 of the last 8 H2H meetings but the trend is shifting — Dundee won the most recent encounter 3-2. This fixture averages 3.1 goals per game, making goals very likely. Dundee's home advantage is meaningful given Aberdeen's poor away record of DLLL.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.