England vs New Zealand
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England Win | 1/10 1.10 | 86% | 84% | -2% |
| Draw | 8/1 9.50 | 10% | 10% | ±0% |
| New Zealand Win | 25/1 25.00 | 4% | 6% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: England inconsistent but strong at home vs lower opposition; New Zealand winless in 7 of 8 with minimal attacking threat (0.29 avg goals scored)
H2H: Limited data but large quality gap strongly favours England
Stakes: Friendly fixture, but England will want a strong home performance ahead of 2026 World Cup preparations; New Zealand have little to play for beyond experience
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data between these sides, but the 435-point ELO gap is one of the largest possible mismatches and consistently points toward a dominant England win with a clean sheet.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.