Ethiopia vs Malawi

Sat 6 Jun 2026

Final Score

1 – 0

Our prediction got the result right

✓ Result

✓ Exact score

✓ BTTS

✓ Over 2.5

CleverScores Prediction

1 – 0

Home Win Medium

Ethiopia

32%

Draw

42%

Malawi

26%

💰 Finding the Value

Our model probability vs the consensus across 7 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.

Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Edge
Ethiopia Win	6/4 2.48	38%	32%	-6%
Draw Value	2/1 3.00	31%	42%	+11%
Malawi Win	15/8 2.90	31%	26%	-5%

1 value market identified in this fixture.

Edge is the gap between our model probability and the bookmaker consensus. A +5% or larger edge means we think this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market does. Odds shown are the median across all bookies in both fractional (UK) and decimal formats — always verify current prices with your bookmaker. Predictions are for information only and are not financial advice.

View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff

🔍 Key Stats

Form: Ethiopia poor overall (17% win rate, avg 0.87 scored at home) but Malawi even more muted in attack (0.38 goals/game, 0.53 conceded away). H2H: Wildly varied results (4-0, 2-1, 0-0) but recent trend shows tighter, lower-scoring games. Stakes: International friendly — low motivation for both sides, which typically suppresses goals and favours draws or minimal scoring. Betting: Bookmakers lean home (41%) over away (34%), supporting a narrow Ethiopia win; BTTS unlikely given Malawi's near-zero attacking output away from home.

⚔️ Head to Head

Last three meetings have ranged from a 4-0 Ethiopia thrashing to a 0-0 draw, with Malawi winning 2-1 in between. The trend is moving toward tighter, more defensive contests in recent years.

🎲 Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.

Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.

CleverScore confidence: Medium

Predictions are AI-generated from form data, head-to-head history, and contextual signals. Football is unpredictable — never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org