Fiorentina vs Atalanta
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina Win | 7/4 2.74 | 35% | 28% | -7% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 38% | +11% |
| Atalanta Win | 6/4 2.50 | 38% | 34% | -4% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Fiorentina mid-table (P15) — low motivation
- 😴 Atalanta mid-table (P7) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Fiorentina averaging under 1 goal per game at home (DDWWD), Atalanta inconsistent away (WLDWL) but carrying more attacking threat. H2H: 3.3 goals per game average, Atalanta won most recent meeting 2-0. Stakes: Both sides in dead-rubber positions with little to play for, slight edge to Atalanta given Fiorentina's injury-hit attack. Betting: BTTS supported by H2H trend and both sides showing ability to score; Over 2.5 supported by high-scoring H2H history and Atalanta's attacking output.
⚔️ Head to Head
High-scoring series averaging 3.3 goals per game, with Atalanta winning the most recent meeting 2-0 and the fixture pattern showing neutral dominance overall — away wins have featured prominently in recent editions.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Fiorentina have scored in their last two home matches and despite losing Kean retain enough attacking quality to find the net; Atalanta's attacking output (1.29 avg goals scored) and recent H2H performances strongly suggest they will score at the Franchi.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
A predicted 1-2 scoreline produces 3 total goals, consistent with the H2H average of 3.3 goals per game. Atalanta's attacking threat, Fiorentina's defensive vulnerability (1.05 conceded per game), and the historically open nature of this fixture all point toward the total exceeding 2.5 goals.