Fluminense vs Palmeiras
📖 The Preview
Palmeiras head into this one in genuinely good nick, winning five of their last seven, and with a title race to chase down they've got every reason to turn up focused. Fluminense, on the other hand, have been dreadful recently, winning just once in their last ten, and they're missing a stack of players through injury including John Kennedy, Ignacio, Matheus Reis, and several others. That's a lot of holes to fill. Palmeiras nicking it 1-0 away from home looks a very tidy outcome here.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense Win | 7/4 2.75 | 34% | 32% | -2% |
| Draw | 2/1 3.10 | 30% | 26% | -4% |
| Palmeiras Win Value | 13/8 2.63 | 36% | 42% | +6% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Palmeiras in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Fluminense xG 0.7 | Palmeiras xG 1.64
Projected: 21% / 27% / 52%
H2H: 3W-2D-3L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
3W-2D-3L for Fluminense in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.