France vs Northern Ireland
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France Win | 1/8 1.13 | 83% | 42% | -41% |
| Draw Value | 7/1 8.13 | 12% | 35% | +23% |
| Northern Ireland Win Value | 16/1 19.00 | 5% | 23% | +18% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 12 bookmakers, the consensus favoured France (83% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: France inconsistent in recent data but class advantage is significant; Northern Ireland WLLD overall but lost both away matches recently
H2H: Limited data available but historically France dominate lower-ranked nations at home
Stakes: Pre-World Cup 2026 warm-up friendly — France motivated to impress at home, Northern Ireland with little to gain
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data, but ELO gap of 562 points strongly favours France in any head-to-head context; Northern Ireland rarely trouble elite nations away from home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.