France vs Northern Ireland
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France Win | 1/8 1.13 | 83% | 42% | -41% |
| Draw Value | 7/1 8.13 | 12% | 35% | +23% |
| Northern Ireland Win Value | 16/1 19.00 | 5% | 23% | +18% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 12 bookmakers, the consensus favoured France (83% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: France inconsistent in recent data but class advantage is significant; Northern Ireland WLLD overall but lost both away matches recently
H2H: Limited data available but historically France dominate lower-ranked nations at home
Stakes: Pre-World Cup 2026 warm-up friendly — France motivated to impress at home, Northern Ireland with little to gain
Betting: Northern Ireland unlikely to score given defensive fragility away from home; total goals capped at 2 given friendly context and modest xG figures
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data, but ELO gap of 562 points strongly favours France in any head-to-head context; Northern Ireland rarely trouble elite nations away from home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Northern Ireland have struggled badly in away fixtures (two consecutive away losses) and concede regularly, but their attacking output is poor (0.65 goals per game) and France are expected to keep a clean sheet at home against significantly weaker opposition. BTTS is unlikely as Northern Ireland lack the firepower to breach a well-organised French defence on the road.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The total of 2 goals sits under the 2.5 threshold. The friendly nature of the match, France's modest xG of 0.79, and Northern Ireland's limited attacking threat (0.65 goals per game) all point to a controlled, low-scoring game rather than an open goal-fest. Under 2.5 goals is the more likely outcome here.