Greece vs Italy
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece Win | 1/1 2.01 | 46% | 34% | -12% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 38% | +12% |
| Italy Win | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 28% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Greece in excellent home form (4-0, 4-1) but Italy's H2H record is strong. Italy's away data is limited but recent H2H dominance matters.
H2H: Italy won both last meetings (3-0 and 2-0), suggesting they can contain Greece — but this is a friendly and neither side has a points incentive.
Stakes: International friendly — low motivation on both sides, reduces likelihood of high-scoring game.
Betting: BTTS plausible given equal ELO and both teams having quality attackers; Under 2.5 likely given friendly context and low xG values (0.79 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Head to Head
Italy dominant in last 2 meetings, winning both and keeping Greece scoreless, with an aggregate of 5-0. However, friendlies can reset trends.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams possess quality attackers and the equal ELO gap means neither defence is significantly superior; Greece's attack has been prolific at home and Italy are capable of finding the net even away, making it reasonable that both sides get on the scoresheet in an open friendly.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Despite Greece's high recent scoring averages, the low xG values (Greece 0.79, Italy 0.75) and friendly nature of the match suggest limited urgency and defensive caution. Total expected goals sit well below 2.5, pointing toward under 2.5 goals in this encounter.