Inter Miami vs Orlando City SC

Inter Miami's commanding first-half performance unraveled in dramatic fashion as Orlando City SC stormed back to claim a 4-3 victory. The hosts dominated the opening 45 minutes, with I. Fray setting the tone in the fourth minute before T. Segovia doubled the lead in the 25th. L. Messi's clinical finish in the 33rd minute appeared to have settled the contest at 3-0, but Orlando City had other plans. M. Ojeda's header in the 39th minute signaled the beginning of a remarkable comeback that would ultimately deny Inter Miami what looked like a routine three points.

The second half became a study in defensive fragility. Ojeda completed his brace from the penalty spot in the 78th minute to equalize at 3-3, setting up a tense finale. T. Spicer's 90th-minute finish then proved decisive, handing Orlando City an improbable winner despite trailing by three goals at halftime.

Our model significantly misjudged this fixture, predicting a 3-3 draw with an overwhelming 81 percent probability favoring Inter Miami. The projection failed to account for the defensive vulnerabilities that would emerge after the interval, particularly the repeated defensive lapses that allowed Ojeda to exploit space in the box. The live xG assessment at the 90-minute mark—showing both teams at zero remaining expected goals—suggested a completed contest, yet Orlando City manufactured a winner from open play. This represents a meaningful miss in capturing the momentum shifts and intensity patterns that ultimately determined the outcome.