Lanus vs San Lorenzo
📖 The Preview
Lanus are slight favourites here and their head-to-head record backs that up, winning five of the last eight meetings against San Lorenzo. San Lorenzo come in noticeably fresher with eight days rest compared to Lanus's three, which keeps them competitive, but their recent form has been dire, only winning twice in ten. With both sides expected to be cagey and the goals market pointing firmly low, a single Lanus goal on home turf looks enough to get the job done. Tight, scrappy, but Lanus edge it.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanus Win | 1/1 2.01 | 47% | 51% | +4% |
| Draw | 15/8 2.88 | 33% | 33% | ±0% |
| San Lorenzo Win | 7/2 4.60 | 20% | 16% | -4% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: San Lorenzo (8d) vs Lanus (3d) — San Lorenzo significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Lanus home WWDWD is solid; San Lorenzo away DDDW shows limited threat on the road. Lanus avg 0.91 scored but 1.24 xG at home. San Lorenzo avg 0.63 xG away.
H2H: Lanus dominant — 5 wins in last 8, including wins in Jan 2026 and Oct 2025; avg 2.5 goals/game historically.
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (P6 vs P7), no relegation or promotion pressure — motivation is normal, slightly favouring home pride.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Lanus has won 5 of the last 8 meetings with strong home dominance; recent results include a 3-2 Lanus win in Jan 2026 and 2-1 in Oct 2025. H2H averages 2.5 goals per game, but away San Lorenzo struggles to convert, making a tight home win the most likely outcome.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.