Larne vs Saburtalo
📖 The Preview
Larne look the more likely winners here, and the form backs that up — they've strung together a solid run of results recently and are playing with real confidence. Saburtalo aren't a pushover though, they've shown they can nick a goal themselves and the win probability being nearly 30% reflects that. But on home turf in a European knockout, Larne's momentum feels like the difference, and both teams finding the net makes a 2-1 home win the most natural way this plays out.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larne Win Value | 2/1 3.00 | 31% | 49% | +18% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.20 | 29% | 22% | -7% |
| Saburtalo Win | 5/4 2.32 | 40% | 29% | -11% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Larne home record LWW with avg 0.77 scored overall but xG model projects 2.91 at home; Saburtalo away record DWW, avg 1.93 scored but fatigued on 2 days rest
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — both teams fully motivated, no dead-rubber discount applied
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.