Liberia vs Sierra Leone
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberia Win | 6/4 2.55 | 36% | 32% | -4% |
| Draw Value | 2/1 3.08 | 30% | 39% | +9% |
| Sierra Leone Win | 7/4 2.75 | 34% | 29% | -5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Liberia averaging 0.72 goals scored at home, Sierra Leone averaging 1.08 overall but only drawing or losing away recently
H2H: 1.6 goals/game average across last 8 meetings — historically tight fixture, neutral dominance
Stakes: International friendly with nothing concrete at stake — motivation is modest for both sides, slightly favouring a conservative approach
Betting: Bookmakers imply 39% home win vs 36% away — very tight market; low-scoring, defensive patterns expected
⚔️ Head to Head
Extremely balanced H2H with 3 wins each and 2 draws across 8 meetings. Recent meetings all decided by a single goal (1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 1-0), confirming this is a consistently tight, low-scoring rivalry.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Sierra Leone's away form of DLL and Liberia's defensive vulnerability notwithstanding, Sierra Leone have struggled to score on the road in recent outings. Liberia's home defensive solidity, combined with a statistical model giving only a 16.2% chance of Sierra Leone scoring first, supports the away side failing to find the net. BTTS is unlikely.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
With an H2H average of just 1.6 goals per game and both teams' combined xG of only 1.54, the total goals are expected to stay well under 2.5. Liberia score under 1 goal per game on average and Sierra Leone's away record offers little attacking threat, pointing firmly toward under 2.5 goals.