Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom Win Value | 2/5 1.39 | 67% | 86% | +19% |
| Draw | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 11% | -8% |
| Kristiansund BK Win | 11/2 6.75 | 14% | 3% | -11% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Lillestrom chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Lillestrom averaging 1.71 goals scored at home with WWLW record; Kristiansund averaging only 0.98 goals scored with LLDL away record
H2H: Last 7 meetings average 2.4 goals/game; Lillestrom won most recent home fixture 2-0
Stakes: Lillestrom chasing top-2 from P3 — elevated motivation; Kristiansund mid-table with nothing to play for
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Kristiansund's toothless away form and injury crisis; Over 2.5 supported by Lillestrom's attacking output and Kristiansund's defensive vulnerabilities
⚔️ Head to Head
Recent H2H is closely contested overall but Lillestrom won the last home meeting 2-0; Kristiansund have won 3 of last 7 but struggle severely away from home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Kristiansund are unlikely to score given their poor away record (LLDL), season average of just 0.98 goals per game, and six injury absences weakening their attacking options. Lillestrom's home defence has been solid and Kristiansund have failed to score in several recent away fixtures, making a clean sheet realistic for the hosts.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
With a predicted scoreline of 3-0, total goals reach 3 which clears the 2.5 threshold. Lillestrom's high xG of 3.74, strong home form, and Kristiansund's leaky defence (conceding 1.42 per game) support a comfortable multi-goal home win, pushing the total over 2.5.