Livingston vs Aberdeen

Livingston and Aberdeen served up a four-goal stalemate that defied our pre-match model, which had confidently backed a 1-2 away victory. The hosts struck first through M. Frame's 24th-minute finish, but Livingston proved far more resilient than expected from a relegated side with nothing to play for. J. Nouble equalised immediately after the restart on 47 minutes, before the match took an unusual turn when D. Finlayson's own goal handed Aberdeen a 2-1 lead in the 71st minute. R. Muirhead's 78th-minute leveller ensured both sides left with a draw, a result our model had assigned just 40% probability to.

The prediction missed on multiple fronts. We'd flagged Livingston's poor home form and significant motivation gap as factors favouring Aberdeen, yet the hosts showed sufficient attacking intent despite their relegation status. The rain and referee profile had led us to slightly favour Under 2.5 goals, but four goals were conceded across both sides. Aberdeen's historical dominance in this fixture—five wins in eight meetings—appeared relevant early on, but they couldn't convert their advantage into three points. The own goal proved decisive in undoing what looked like a comfortable victory for the visitors.

Both teams will view this outcome differently. Aberdeen remain unbeaten but drop points in a match they led twice, while Livingston at least salvaged something from a season already written off. The final score sits firmly in the unpredictable territory where defensive concentration lapses and own goals can reshape a match that looked to be heading in one direction.