Luxembourg vs Italy

Wed 3 Jun 2026

Final Score

0 – 1

Our prediction missed

✗ Result

✗ Exact score

✗ BTTS

✓ Over 2.5

CleverScores Prediction

1 – 1

Draw Medium

Luxembourg

27%

Draw

37%

Italy

36%

💰 Finding the Value

Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.

Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Edge
Luxembourg Win Value	11/2 6.50	14%	27%	+13%
Draw Value	10/3 4.20	23%	37%	+14%
Italy Win	4/9 1.45	63%	36%	-27%

2 value markets identified in this fixture.

Edge is the gap between our model probability and the bookmaker consensus. A +5% or larger edge means we think this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market does. Odds shown are the median across all bookies in both fractional (UK) and decimal formats — always verify current prices with your bookmaker. Predictions are for information only and are not financial advice.

📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree

Across 13 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Italy (63% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.

We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.

View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff

🔍 Key Stats

Form: Luxembourg averaging just 0.27 goals scored per game in recent matches; Italy averaging 1.0 goal per game
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Friendly match — Italy likely treating as preparation, Luxembourg playing for pride at home but limited quality
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.

⚔️ Head to Head

Limited data

🎲 Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.

Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.

CleverScore confidence: Medium

Predictions are AI-generated from form data, head-to-head history, and contextual signals. Football is unpredictable — never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org