NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiakos Piraeus
📖 The Preview
After a goalless first leg, Olympiakos come to Nijmegen needing a result and they look the likelier side to get it. They're favoured at 43% to advance and their recent form, while patchy, shows enough quality to nick this one away from home. NEC have been inconsistent lately, losing more than winning across their last ten, and Olympiakos carrying that away-goal mentality should be enough to pinch a 2-0 win and go through. Tight game, low scoring, but the Greeks edge it.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen Win | 13/8 2.68 | 35% | 34% | -1% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.30 | 28% | 23% | -5% |
| Olympiakos Piraeus Win Value | 6/4 2.53 | 37% | 43% | +6% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Champions League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 0-0 (2026-08-04): tie level on aggregate going into second leg.
🔍 Key Stats
Form: NEC Nijmegen xG 0.9 | Olympiakos Piraeus xG 2.68
Projected: 24% / 22% / 54%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.