New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo
📖 The Preview
New England have the edge at home here, holding a solid 4-3 head-to-head record against Houston and sitting just above 50% likely to take all three points. Houston have been decent recently but the Revs look capable of nicking this one in front of their own fans. The prediction is 2-1, so both sides find the net, which fits the BTTS and over 2.5 goals expectation. Houston push back and grab one, but New England do enough to hold on for the win.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution Win Value | 11/8 2.41 | 39% | 51% | +12% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 24% | -3% |
| Houston Dynamo Win | 7/4 2.78 | 34% | 25% | -9% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: NE strong at home (WDWLWW), averaging 1.94 goals scored; Houston in fine overall form (60% win rate) but concedes just 0.68 per game away
H2H: Last 8 meetings average 3.5 goals, recent results include 2-3, 3-3, 2-1 — consistently open and high-scoring
Stakes: Both teams mid-table in MLS with no extreme relegation/promotion pressure, but Houston chasing playoff position provides motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings average 3.5 goals per game with results like 3-3, 2-3, and 3-1 — consistently high-scoring with both teams finding the net regularly; NE holds a slight edge with 4 wins to Houston's 3.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.