New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
📖 The Preview
City at home is the key factor here. They're slight favourites at 52% and despite a patchy run of form, they've got enough about them to edge this one 2-1. Philly will give them something to think about, they always do, but the Union have dropped off lately and are carrying injuries to both G. Martinez and Ndinga. NYCFC have their own absentee headaches with Moralez, Martinez and others missing, but home advantage should just about see them through with goals at both ends guaranteed.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC Win Value | 6/5 2.17 | 43% | 52% | +9% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.70 | 26% | 22% | -4% |
| Philadelphia Union Win | 15/8 2.91 | 31% | 26% | -5% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: NYCFC averaging 1.47 goals scored at home with mixed results; Philadelphia averaging 1.89 goals overall but winless in last 4 away games
H2H: 4-0-4 split over last 8, averaging 2.8 goals/game — evenly contested but recent meetings tight
Stakes: Both teams mid-table in MLS, no extreme pressure, but NYCFC home advantage and Philadelphia's awful away form tip the scales
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Perfectly balanced H2H (4-4) over last 8 meetings, but recent games lean heavily low-scoring — four of the last five meetings ended with 2 or fewer total goals, suggesting tight encounters at this rivalry
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.