Notts County vs Chesterfield
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County Win Value | 5/4 2.28 | 41% | 55% | +14% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.24 | 29% | 25% | -4% |
| Chesterfield Win | 2/1 3.10 | 30% | 20% | -10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Notts County mid-table (P5) — low motivation
- 😴 Chesterfield mid-table (P6) — low motivation
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick downgraded to draw — risk factors detected for Notts County
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Notts County home record DLWW — winning recent home games; Chesterfield away record WDWW — strong but facing a decent home side
H2H: 8 meetings average 3.3 goals/game, recent results volatile with both teams scoring in majority of meetings
Stakes: Both sides are mid-table with minimal motivation, though the business end of season adds some intensity
Betting: BTTS likely given H2H history of open games and both teams averaging over 1 goal per game; Over 2.5 supported by H2H average of 3.3 goals and Notts County's high xG of 3.45
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is high-scoring with an average of 3.3 goals per game across 8 meetings; recent results include a 2-3, 2-0, 1-2, and 2-2, showing both teams consistently find the net against each other — goals are very much on trend in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 1-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
With a combined H2H average of 3.3 goals per game, Notts County's xG of 3.45, and Chesterfield's consistent scoring away from home, the total of 3 goals in a 2-1 scoreline is well supported. Both teams have the attacking quality to push this fixture over the 2.5-goal threshold, and historical precedent in this derby strongly favours a higher-scoring encounter.