Notts County vs Chesterfield
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County Win Value | 5/4 2.28 | 41% | 55% | +14% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.24 | 29% | 25% | -4% |
| Chesterfield Win | 2/1 3.10 | 30% | 20% | -10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Notts County mid-table (P5) — low motivation
- 😴 Chesterfield mid-table (P6) — low motivation
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick downgraded to draw — risk factors detected for Notts County
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Notts County home record DLWW — winning recent home games; Chesterfield away record WDWW — strong but facing a decent home side
H2H: 8 meetings average 3.3 goals/game, recent results volatile with both teams scoring in majority of meetings
Stakes: Both sides are mid-table with minimal motivation, though the business end of season adds some intensity
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is high-scoring with an average of 3.3 goals per game across 8 meetings; recent results include a 2-3, 2-0, 1-2, and 2-2, showing both teams consistently find the net against each other — goals are very much on trend in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.