Paraguay vs Nicaragua
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay Win | 1/10 1.11 | 85% | 42% | -43% |
| Draw Value | 7/1 8.50 | 11% | 35% | +24% |
| Nicaragua Win Value | 20/1 23.00 | 4% | 23% | +19% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 11 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Paraguay (85% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Paraguay WLLD with low scoring recently; Nicaragua DLL with near-zero attacking output
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Friendly match but large ELO gap means quality differential likely overrides motivation factors
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.