Philippines vs Guam
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 7 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines Win | 1/25 1.06 | 89% | 43% | -46% |
| Draw Value | 10/1 11.00 | 8% | 35% | +27% |
| Guam Win Value | 33/1 31.00 | 3% | 22% | +19% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 7 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Philippines (89% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Philippines average 1 goal scored/conceded with 50% win rate; Guam recently lost 0-5 and won 2-1, averaging 1.8 scored but 5.9 conceded
H2H: Philippines won both meetings, 4 goals per game average, clear dominance
Stakes: Friendly match with no competitive pressure, but Philippines motivated to maintain H2H superiority at home
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Guam's vulnerability in defence and Philippines' disciplined home record; Under 2.5 feasible but H2H history and Guam's leaky defence support 2+ Philippines goals
⚔️ Head to Head
Philippines have won both historical meetings convincingly — 3-0 at home in 2021 and 4-1 away in 2019. Clear pattern of Philippines shutting out or heavily beating Guam.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Guam concede heavily (5.9 avg) and Philippines' H2H record shows they have shut Guam out before (3-0 in 2021). With Philippines' solid defensive structure and Guam's limited attacking output (1.8 avg scored but heavily context-dependent), Guam is unlikely to find the net, making BTTS improbable.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals of 2 falls under the 2.5 threshold. Although H2H averages 4 goals per game, those were driven largely by Philippines goals rather than a free-scoring exchange. The Poisson model keeps xG low for both sides, and as a friendly with reduced intensity, the match is expected to stay under 2.5 total goals.