Philippines vs Guam
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 7 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines Win | 1/25 1.06 | 89% | 43% | -46% |
| Draw Value | 10/1 11.00 | 8% | 35% | +27% |
| Guam Win Value | 33/1 31.00 | 3% | 22% | +19% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 7 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Philippines (89% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Philippines average 1 goal scored/conceded with 50% win rate; Guam recently lost 0-5 and won 2-1, averaging 1.8 scored but 5.9 conceded
H2H: Philippines won both meetings, 4 goals per game average, clear dominance
Stakes: Friendly match with no competitive pressure, but Philippines motivated to maintain H2H superiority at home
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Philippines have won both historical meetings convincingly — 3-0 at home in 2021 and 4-1 away in 2019. Clear pattern of Philippines shutting out or heavily beating Guam.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.