Pisa vs Napoli
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pisa Win Value | 7/1 8.50 | 11% | 16% | +5% |
| Draw | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 16% | -3% |
| Napoli Win | 4/11 1.36 | 70% | 68% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 💀 Pisa already relegated (P20) — nothing to play for
- 🏆 Napoli in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Pisa LLLLLLLWLL (home: LLLWL, avg scored 0.51, conceded 2.5) vs Napoli LDWLDWWWWW (away: DDWW, avg scored 1.63, conceded 1.12)
H2H: Limited data — model and form used as primary signal
Stakes: Pisa relegated (zero motivation), Napoli in title race (maximum motivation) — huge motivational gap favours Napoli significantly
Betting: BTTS unlikely as Pisa's attack averages just 0.51 goals/game with key forwards missing; Over 2.5 possible but Pisa's output is too weak to push past 2 total goals reliably
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data available — prediction weighted heavily on current form, xG model, and motivation context.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Pisa are extremely unlikely to score: they average only 0.51 goals per game, are missing multiple key attackers (Tramoni, Loyola, Coppola, Stengs all out), are already relegated with no motivation, and Napoli's defence concedes just 1.12 per game. Pisa stay scoreless here.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Total goals are expected to stay under 2.5. Pisa's decimated, unmotivated attack is unlikely to contribute, and while Napoli will score, the 0-2 scoreline lands on exactly 2 goals total — under the 2.5 threshold. Napoli may control the game conservatively to protect fitness in a title run-in rather than chasing a cricket score.