Real Madrid vs Alaves

Real Madrid controlled this encounter from start to finish, though not quite with the clinical ruthlessness the pre-match data suggested. Kylian Mbappe's finish in the 30th minute—set up by Arda Guler's incisive pass—gave the hosts the lead they'd established themselves as heavy favorites to secure. Vinicius Junior doubled the advantage after the interval when Frenkie Valverde found him in the 50th minute, seemingly putting the contest beyond doubt. Alaves pulled one back through Tomás Martínez in the 90th minute, courtesy of an assist from Álex Guevara, but it proved only a consolation in what became a comfortable Madrid victory.

Our model predicted a 3-1 scoreline with Real Madrid winning at 92 percent probability, and while the result direction was correct, the actual 2-1 finish fell short of the exact forecast. The underlying factors we'd identified largely held up: Real Madrid's dominant home record and attacking threat were on display, while Alaves's weak away form—10 percent win rate and minimal offensive output—left them vulnerable. The historical pattern of Madrid's clean sheets against this opponent nearly held firm as well. What we underestimated was how much Madrid would ease off after securing a two-goal cushion, or alternatively, how Alaves might generate slightly more resistance than their away form typically suggested.

The result felt inevitable given the gap in quality and motivation, though not as comprehensive as our pre-match projections implied. Real Madrid's second-half control never appeared under threat, leaving them well-positioned in the title race despite the goal tally coming in one shy of expectation.