Real Sociedad vs Alaves

Real Sociedad and Alaves played out a dramatic 3-3 draw in La Liga, a result that bore little resemblance to our pre-match prediction of a 2-0 home victory. The match unfolded as a chaotic affair dominated by defensive lapses and clinical finishing from both sides. Alaves struck first through an own goal from Caleta-Car in the third minute, but the visitors leveled almost immediately when Diabate finished after a lapse in the Sociedad defense. Sucic restored the hosts' lead with a 14th-minute finish, only for another own goal—this time from Sociedad keeper Sivera in the 27th—to leave the teams level at the interval. Oskarsson put Sociedad ahead again in the 60th minute with a well-taken finish, but Boye's powerful 90th-minute header ensured Alaves left with a draw and left our model looking well wide of the mark.

Our prediction failed to account for the defensive fragility both teams would display, particularly the own-goal contributions that proved decisive. The 2-0 scoreline we forecasted suggested a dominant Sociedad performance, but instead both sides created genuine opportunities and punished errors ruthlessly. The late dismissal of Sergio Gómez added another layer of chaos, though by that point the damage to our forecast had long been done. This result serves as a reminder that even in matches featuring clear home advantage, defensive vulnerabilities can derail even the most straightforward predictions. Both teams ultimately settled for a point apiece, a fairer reflection perhaps of the quality on display.