Rep. Of Ireland vs Qatar
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rep. Of Ireland Win | 4/6 1.65 | 57% | 36% | -21% |
| Draw Value | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 38% | +13% |
| Qatar Win Value | 4/1 5.00 | 18% | 26% | +8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Rep. Of Ireland (351d) vs Qatar (171d) — Rep. Of Ireland significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Ireland unbeaten in recent games (2 draws) but improving; Qatar on a poor run LDLLLDL with heavy defeats
H2H: Ireland dominant — won 4-0 at home last meeting, never lost to Qatar; avg 3 goals/game in H2H
Stakes: Friendly but Ireland fresher by 180 days — physical and sharpness edge meaningful
Betting: Bookmakers imply 61% home win probability — Qatar concede heavily away so BTTS unlikely; low xG totals suggest under 2.5 but H2H history and Qatar's defensive frailty push Ireland to 2
⚔️ Head to Head
Ireland unbeaten in both H2H meetings — 4-0 win at home in Oct 2021 and 1-1 draw in Qatar in Mar 2021. Qatar have never beaten Ireland and concede heavily.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Qatar have been extremely leaky defensively (2.61 conceded per game) but their attack has also struggled, scoring just 0.83 goals per game. Ireland's defensive shape has been tight in recent matches (0-0, 1-1) and Qatar are yet to score against Ireland at the Aviva. Qatar are unlikely to find the net here against a well-organised Irish defence, making BTTS unlikely.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Despite H2H history averaging 3 goals per game, both teams' current xG figures are low (0.79 and 0.75) and this is a friendly fixture. Ireland's form shows a cautious low-scoring pattern (0-0, 1-1) and Qatar's attack is misfiring. Total goals are expected to stay at or under 2.5, with Ireland likely to control the game without conceding.